According to Internet World Statistics, as of June 30, 2006, Globally, there were 1,043,104,886 online.

According to technorati, as of August 29th, 2006, there were 52.5 million blogs.   Technorati does not including My Space pages and also attempts to exclude splogs.

52.5 / 1043 = 5.033%

Assuming that most people only have one blog, this means that 5% of the world’s online population now blogs.

However, also according to Technorati, the number of blogs is doubling every six months.   Internet World Statistics says that the number of users grew by 189% between 2000 and 2005.   That implies a 7% growth rate every six months. 

If you put those trends together, by June 2008, more than 50% of Internet users will have a blog.

These numbers undoubtedly represent a high end prediction.

It is more likely that the growth rate of blogging will slow down before 2008.

However, entrepreneurs are continuing to develop new reasons why individuals would want to have a web address, even if they do not use that URL to produce a traditional blog.

For example Identity 2.0 efforts, such as SXIP, rely upon end users being able to control and present their identity certificate from a unique URL.

This combined with trends like photocasting, where family members and friends share photos through a unique URL are likely to continue the demand.

Finally, professional requirements will encourage more and more people to set up a blog. Blogs are a proven way of building a social network, of fostering your professional reputation, and of demonstrating your capabilities. How far are we from the day when most hiring managers for senior positions include a check of your blog as part of their due diligence process?

This is from the Thought Works blog, with thanks to Marco Abis.   It was written by Jeff Sutherland:

“Prof.Peter Sengee of MIT was asked to update “The Fifth Discipline” for republication as one of the leading business books of the 20th century. He sent a note to Edward Deming asking him for comment on the book. He wasn’t sure Deming would respond as he did not know him and Deming was over 90 years old at the time.

Deming, the father of the Japanese post-war industrial revival was regarded by many as the leading quality guru in both Japan and the United States. Scrum roots are in Japanese lean development and that was started by Deming. So really, what we are doing is a U.S. initiative that had to be repackaged by Japan because of dysfunctional management in the U.S.

Deming responded to Senge:

“Our prevailing system of management has destroyed our people. People are born with intrinsic motivation, self-respect, dignity, curiosity to learn, joy in learning. The forces of destruction begin with toddlers—a prize for the best halloween costume, grades in school, gold stars—and on up through the university. On the job, people, teams, and divisions are ranked, rewarded for the top, punished for the bottom. Management by Objectives, quotas, incentive pay, business plans, put together separately, division by division, cause further loss, unknown and unknowable.”

Prof. Senge comments:

“I believe that the prevailing system of management is, at its core, dedicated to mediocrity. If forces people to work harder and harder to compensate for failing to tap the spirit and collective intelligence that characterizes working together at its best.”

The importance of Agile processes and particularly Scrum is that we are changing the way people work all over the world. While we are often surprised at the resistance to change we see, we can take confidence that we are driving forward Deming’s vision and not just in the world of software. If he were alive today, he would certainly be encouraged by this.

Jeff Sutherland”

The source of beauty and innovation in complex systems is the individual.  

For a whole country, decentralization and a reliance upon liberty are sure to produce better economic outcomes than dictatorial control.   

It works the same way inside a company.   Inside any team.  

If you want to encourage constant innovation within your organization, create an environment that leverages intrinsic motivation, fosters self-respect, gives each member of your team dignity, and encourages their curiosity to learn and their joy in learning.

And just to repeat myself, execution without vision, should get outsourced.   If your team is not innovating, you and your team will get outsourced.  

In today’s economy, constant innovation is a requirement.

Thanks to Tim Appnel, I was directed to a great article by Om Malik: Web Office Vs. Microsoft Office.

Here’s the basics:

• Red Herring says there are at least 17 companies trying to built Web versions of MS Office.
• Liam Breck doesn’t buy the hype.   He called Web Versions of MS Office a “Tiny Niche“
• Ever since I wrote a paper called “The Next Wave in Productivity Tools: Web Office“, I have tried to tell folks that just making a web based spreadsheet or presentation tool isn’t going to cut it.   Web Office should not be just about making web versions of MS Office.   Back in March 2006, I wrote this:

 If you are part of a team building an AJAX powered alternative to Word or Excel, you should instead apply your amazing talent to building a social application that can take advantage of all the power that simple, plain old xHTML brings to the table.

The enterprise already has basic desk top applications and shared drives. The enterprise lacks an integrated Web Office solution that adds to the list of existing applications. Very few big companies have everyone blogging internally. Very few big companies have figured out how to use internal Wikis.

No big company that I know of is currently using internal blogs, wikis, social bookmarks, social networks, RSS calendars, pod casting and tagging to empower their knowledge workers. There are a few technology companies that have internal blogs and Wikis, but they have been set up in haphazard fashion, with no unified structure for cleanly integrating things like LDAP or information from back-end systems.

• Om agrees.   He says: “I agree - Web Office should not be about replacing the old, but inventing the new web apps that solve some specific problems.”

Although, I will call Om on one thing: Web Office or Enterprise 2.0 applications should not about “solving problems” - as in providing end solutions.    Instead, at their best, Web Office should provide productivity tools that knowledge workers can use to build their own ad-hoc solutions.

Microsoft’s new Excel Services is a perfect example.   Excel Services gives any knowledge worker the ability to turn their spreadsheets into an online application at the press of a button.   There are no rows and columns.   The online application looks like a real Web 2.0 application built in C#, Ruby or Java.

Excel Services turns Excel into an Integrated Development Environment for business people who do not know how to code.

This is the real vision of Enterprise 2.0 / Web Office / Office 2.0.   It is the radical shift from IT developing full solutions to a new era, where IT provides productivity tools and knowledge workers use those tools to build end solutions.

Enterprise 2.0 is the infrastructure that supports end users building their own solutions.   More on this later.

“There is no way our company will accept using Software as a Service”.

If you want to get an idea for the scope of the issues that true professionals deal with, check out this video from C|Net detailing the Equinix hosting facilities.

In case you are unfamiliar with them, Equinix describes themselves as The Home of the Internet™

Equinix is the leading global provider of network-neutral data centers and Internet exchange services for enterprises, content companies and network services providers.

The scale of steps taken by Equinix is truly amazing.   10 Megawatts of power.   Diesel backup generators capable of firing up in 3 to 7 seconds.   Banks of car-like batteries capable of providing uninterrupted power for 7 minutes - just in case.   5 levels of bio-metric security checks.   Physical cages to protect the servers.   Air conditioning pipes big enough to drive a car through them.

Why would a bank, or a consulting company, or a hospital want to deal with those kind of issues?

So, colocation makes sense.

What about Software as a Service?

Just as places like Equinix can buy the same Caterpillar generators that anyone would need to run their own hosting facilities, SaaS companies like SalesForce.com and iUpload can and do buy all the needed security systems to protect data as if it were their own.

How do you know the SaaS firm has done it correctly?   You have to do a security audit.   You have to hire one of the Big-4 or a boutique firm that specializes in doing these assessments.   They look for things like multiple layers of encryption.   They check that the back-up systems actually work.   They examine the colocation facilities.   They have ethical hackers who are trained to test the firewalls.

Software as a Service is just out-sourcing of some of the functions that used to be handled by your internal corporate IT department.

In many instances, out-sourcing can help you reduce costs, improve time to market and even improve upon the quality that an in-source team could deliver.

That’s why 99% of companies rely on UPS, FedEx and DHL instead of maintaining their own private shipping departments.

That is also why many corporate IT systems will eventually be delivered by Software as a Service vendors.

Thanks to Ismael Ghalimi, Jeff Nolan, and the Enterprise Irregulars, I have just been introduced to System One and Burno Haid’s Journal.

System One is a platform, a company and one very cool piece of Wiki / productivity / information organization technology.

They have a System One screencast that is really worth checking, if for no other reason than to see how easy work flows could actually be.

The insanely productive team at Zoho has pulled another rabbit out of the hat: Zoho Projects.

If you want to get an introduction to it, the best thing to do is watch their zoho projects screen cast.

But just to peak your interest, here is a screen shot:

Many executives are terrified of O20.   Most actually.

Many people do not understand that internal blogs and wikis will actually be used to get the boring, mundane work of business done.   Gartner is still talking about enterprise blogs as though they are some fluffy swishy let’s talk about my cats kind of thing.

PR and HR senior executives are scared senseless.

Corporate CTOs, CIOs and CKOs are convinced that O20 is the perfect storm that is going to get them fired.   One minute no one wants it, the next people expect corporate IT to provide 100% up time, guaranteed back-up and Fort Knox security on top of something that is built by a little company they have never heard of.

It is my hope that some of these issues will be addressed at the Office 2.0 Conference.

So, here is my open request for Panel Discussion Topics:

1. O20 Infrastructure: Can you provide 100% up time, 100% security and 100% back-up on technology from a company you have never heard of?
2. O20 Business Applications: How are business people going to really going to use these tools?    Examples from Sales, Marketing, Operations, Finance.  As an aside - maybe this isn’t a panel but is a series of lightening presentations.   5 minutes each.   Prize for the funniest one.   At least one picture of Darth Vader required in all presentations.   I want to do the “SOX compliant Financial Reporting Wiki”.
3. HR & PR Nightmare: How do we protect the brand?   What rules do we tell our people to follow?   If some guy has a picture of him flipping the bird beside a statement saying he works for us, do we fire him?   If we use these tools internally, is there any place for blogging and wiki culture within an enterprise?   How do you manage people to be productive and to achieve your strategic goals in an O20 world?   Do you have to retrain management?

These are some of the very real people and process issues that need to be solved before Office 2.0 technology will be adopted within the enterprise.

Last week I asked three simple questions, trying to determine whether end users preferred IBM’s Lotus Notes/Domino Email or Microsoft’s Outlook Email.

I figure the poll needs 10,000 respondents before we can start to trust to the results.   So far, only a few hundred have replied.

However, the early results have surprised me because they lean so significantly towards one of the solutions.   Considering that the two solutions have about even market share, I expected the results to be a little closer.   Lotus Notes is in the lead at the moment.

Lotus Notes Bloggers are Driving the Results

I can, at least partially, explain the results.   My site has received a lot of traffic from a few prominent Lotus Notes Sites, including:

• IBM’s Alan Lepofsky.
• Richard Shwartz
• Laurette Rynne

So… Is the Lotus Notes Crowd Really Listening?

One could argue that by driving Notes developers to vote in the poll, they are ignoring the feelings of the end customer, and trying to skew the results.

On the other hand, one could also argue that by participating in the ebb and flow of blogosphere discussions, they really are listening.

I wonder if any MSFT / Dot Net sites will drive some participation from there end.

In the mean time, please help increase the participation level.   Regardless of the outcome, I would love this to get to some numbers that will really convince CIOs.

Here are the same voting widgets (they link to the same database and results):

IBM’s Luis Suarez says “People are [terrified] to write down something through weblogs that they may be accountable for at some point, (because otherwise why wouldn’t they blog?)”

I think he is right. 

Or put another way, I think that any business person who has long term career objectives in mind should be concerned about what they write in blogs.

The stakes get higher when people connect you with your employer.

When you apply for a job, your blog acts like an extended cover letter.   Employers can and will search your name on Google.  If the first thing that pops up is a blog entry about how smashed you got at a Frat party, it won’t help you get hired.

The problem is that there are no clear guidelines.   Exercising common sense is important.   But you can still wind up in hot water.

Your Employees Are Already Blogging

For senior executives the issue is flipped.

There are currently 50 million blogs (not including my space pages) and that the number is doubling about every six months.   These bloggers are writing about 2 million posts every day.

If your employees are already blogging, what guidance are you giving them?

Solution to Both Problems: Copy Intuit’s Scott K. Wilder

One possible solution to both of these problems is to copy Intuit’s Scott K. Wilder.

Scott leads Intuit’s blogging efforts.   Intuit recognized that their employees were going to blog.   Rather than trying to stop them, Intuit decided to give both trust their employees and give them some clear guidance.

Scott came up with the idea of a simple one-pager set of guidelines.   Scott felt that the guidelines needed to be simple, clear and short enough that people would actually read them.

Scott worked with Intuit’s legal department to develop the guidelines, and then ran 1 hour blogging classes to get people familiar with the rules.

Ultimately, Scott says that the guidelines both improved the quality of employee blog posts, and actually encouraged people to write.   Scott says that the employees recognized that a blog was a powerful reputation management tool.   The guidelines acted as a guide rail, and thus lowered the risk of doing something that might seriously damage employee’s reputation or the company’s reputations.

Example list of Dos and Don’ts

Here is an example one pager for an internal blogging system:

Do:

1. Take ownership – A blog is a communication tool, a reputation management tool and a knowledge sharing system. It can be used as a very effective way of demonstrating your expertise and sharing the technical topics you are most interested it.
2. Comment – Use the comment system to share discussions and help others learn from your questions and answers.
3. Link to internal content – Help your colleagues find useful information. Try to add at least 2 links per post. You can link to other posts, other web sites and Lotus Notes DBs.
4. Link to external content – It takes significant effort to learn about all relevant academic, industry and regulatory web sites related to most topics. Share your links and save your colleagues time.
5. Post things where they belong – Internal blogs have some structure.   If you are talking about a specific project, post within the internal Project Work Site.   If you are giving an update about a client, post within the internal Client Page.   Within the internal system, every post you make will link back to your People Page. 
6. Do check if the information you intend to post has already been posted….in some cases, we re-use material with only slight modifications.  Do check that you are not posting material that is redundant or already posted, or if the info you post supersedes another doc, think about whether we need to remove the original [need to think through this more carefully]
7. Do tell people about the work we have done that you cannot post – You should not post sensitive client information, but you can let your colleagues know how we have helped our clients solve business challenges. You should also let your colleagues know that they can contact you with specific questions.
8. Remember your post might be seen by everyone in the company – This is a double-edged sword.   On the one hand, you can be widely recognized for your insight and expertise. On the other hand, you need to be confident that what you are posting is useful, vetted, proofed and correct.

Don’t:

1. Do not post confidential client data – Do not post client data, client model weights, customer records from a client, social security numbers, confidential business plans or confidential client intellectual property.
2. Do not post external articles where we do not have copyright permission – post a link instead
3. Do not post anything you would be embarrassed to see on the front page of the Wall Street Journal – The internal Enterprise Blogging system is encrypted, and only visible to people who work for out company. However, there is the possibility that someone could cut & paste your post and email it to the public. Do not criticize clients, or post anything you would not email.
4. Do not ‘overpost’ in an unstructured fashion… large volumes of unorganized information are not helpful – The Enterprise Blogging system is a knowledge sharing tool and you are encouraged to post lots of relevant content, but think about what people need to read most and help them navigate through information.
5. Do not flame your colleagues – Be nice and be constructive. Remember that some things are better resolved using a face-to-face conversation. The company encourages diversity of thought and positive debate. Remember also that the company’s anti harassment policies apply on the web just as much as on email or in person.
6. Do not hesitate to ask – When in doubt seek guidance from your manager or the Enterprise Blogging team about what to post and where to post it.

An external system, or an external blogging policy would work along similar lines.

Real enterprise blogging systems are not dirt cheap.   They cost about $50K for 1,000 users to set up.   And a further $50K a year to run.   To make them really work, you need a full time internal champion, and you need on going support from management.

The system I designed for my firm was supposed to support 1,000 users.   With a smaller initial roll-out, it would have cost around $50K, including software, hardware, etc.   I talked this week to Robin Hopper, CEO of iUpload.   For a basic set up, he said that was a reasonable number.

However, $50K is nothing for a big company.   And it is especially nothing when considering the potential return from enterprise blogs and wikis in the form of improved internal communication and an increased pace of innovation.

So why aren’t their more enterprise blogs out there?   Remeber that there are currently 50,000,000 Internet blogs being tracked by technorati.   Clearly, the general public likes to use these tools to communicate.   That in turn implies that knowledge workers would probably be happy to use them as tools to both get work done and capture that work communication in a form that can be leveraged through search and cross-links.

The big issue isn’t the $.   It’s the politics of control.  
Most large US companies are internally run like Soviet centralled planned
economies, complete with bureaucracies that fight for budget and
managers who try to control information.   Six Sigma would make a
Soviet central planner go weak in the knees with joy and happiness.
Enterprise 2.0, with it’s decentralized exchange of information, with
it’s encouragement for internal entrepreneurs, and dynamic and ad hoc
solutions is anathema to these central planners.   They recognize the
question “What if every employee could use a blog to communicate with
the whole company” as a threat.
Personally, I believe that power in most companies is expressed in only
one of two ways.   As an executive, you either control people, or you
empower them.   If you try to control permanently, you stay permanently
on the defensive.   If you try to empower them, they owe, they will
work hard, but they will get up to no-good unless you lead with a clear
vision.
Most CEOs recognize that they can not do it all themselves.   Thus, most CEOs
recognize that they need to foster an environment that encourages
internal entrepreneurs, fosters dialog, and reduces the inefficiencies
of large bureaucracies to a minimum.   In other words, most CEOs try to empower.
Most mid level managers are secretly Soviet style central planners.  
They try to control information.  They limit access to information.  
So naturally, they oppose enterprise blogs and wikis.
This is the only explanation I can come up with for the slow adoption of these simple and cheap tools within the enterprise.   What do you think?